The use of a recurrent neural network model with separated time-series and lagged daily inputs for waste disposal rates modeling during COVID-19.

A new modeling framework is proposed to estimate mixed waste disposal rates in a Canadian capital city during the pandemic. Different Recurrent Neural Network models were developed using climatic, socioeconomic, and COVID-19 related daily variables with different input lag times and study periods. It is hypothesized that the use of distinct time series and lagged inputs may improve modeling accuracy. Considering the entire 7.5-year period from Jan 2013 to Sept 2020, multi-variate weekday models were sensitive with lag times in the testing stage. It appears that the selection of input variables is more important than waste model complexity. Models applying COVID-19 related inputs generally had better performance, with average MAPE of 10.1%. The optimized lag times are however similar between the periods, with slightly longer average lag for the COVID-19 at 5.3 days. Simpler models with least input variables appear to better simulate waste disposal rates, and both 'Temp-Hum' (Temperature-Humidity) and 'Temp-New Test' (Temperature-COVID new test case) models capture the general disposal trend well, with MAPE of 10.3% and 9.4%, respectively. The benefits of the use of separated time series inputs are more apparent during the COVID-19 period, with noticeable decrease in modeling error.

Modeling of municipal waste disposal rates during COVID-19 using separated waste fraction models.

Municipal waste disposal behaviors in Regina, the capital city of Saskatchewan, Canada have significantly changed during the COVID-19 pandemic. About 7.5 year of waste disposal data at the Regina landfill was collected, verified, and consolidated. Four modeling approaches were examined to predict total waste disposal at the Regina landfill during the COVID-19 period, including (i) continuous total (Baseline), (ii) continuous fraction, (iii) truncated total, and (iv) truncated fraction. A single feature input recurrent neural network model was adopted for each approach. It is hypothesized that waste quantity modeling using different waste fractions and separate time series can better capture disposal behaviors of residents during the lockdown. Compared to the baseline approach, the use of waste fractions in modeling improves both result accuracy and precision. In general, the use of continuous time series over-predicted total waste disposal, especially when actual disposal rates were less than 50 t/day. Compared to the baseline approach, mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean square error (MSE) were reduced. The R value increased from 0.63 to 0.79. Comparing to the baseline, the truncated total and the truncated fraction approaches better captured the total waste disposal behaviors during the COVID-19 period, probably due to the periodicity of the weeklong data set. For both approaches, MAE and MAPE were lower than 70 and 22%, respectively. The model performance of the truncated fraction appears the best, with an MAPE of 19.8% and R value of 0.92. Results suggest the uses of waste fractions and separated time series are beneficial, especially if the input set is heavily skewed.

Identification of behaviour patterns in waste collection and disposal during the first wave of COVID-19 in Regina, Saskatchewan, Canada.

The novel coronavirus (2019-nCov) has had significant impacts on almost every aspect of daily life. From 'stay-at-home' orders to the progressive lifting of restrictions, the COVID-19 pandemic has had unprecedented effects on consumer behaviours and waste disposal habits. The purpose of this short communication is to examine time series waste collection and disposal data in a mid-sized Canadian city to understand how behavioural changes have affected municipal waste management. The results suggest that private waste disposal increased during the pandemic. This may be due to people doing home renovations in order to accommodate working from home. Furthermore, it appears that changes in consumer habits destabilized the consistency of waste disposal tonnage when compared to the same time period in 2019. When considering curbside residential waste collection, there was also an increase in tonnage. This may be the result of more waste being generated at home due to changes in eating and cooking habits, and cleaning routine. Finally, the ratio of residential waste collection to total disposal is examined. More residential waste is being generated, which may have environmental and operational effects, especially related to collection and transportation. The results from this study are important from an operational perspective, and will help planners and policy makers to better prepare for changes in the waste stream due to pandemics or other emergencies.

Waste disposal characteristics and data variability in a mid-sized Canadian city during COVID-19.

COVID-19, declared a global pandemic by the World Health Organization, has caused governments to react swiftly with a variety of measures to quell the spread of the virus. This study investigates changes in waste disposal characteristics and the relationship between the mass of biomedical waste disposed and new COVID-19 tests performed in Regina, Canada. Results suggest that between May and September 2020, significant differences in the median amount of waste disposed exist. The amount of monthly waste disposed was slightly lower to about 450-550 tonnes/month. Monthly waste data variability, however, was significantly lower. Seasonal effects on total waste disposal is observed, but is less obvious than pre-COVID time. Furthermore, the distribution of different waste fractions varies, probably due to operational and industrial characteristics. A non-linear relationship exists between the number of COVID-19 tests performed and the mass of biomedical waste disposed, perhaps due to a lagged relationship between biomedical waste generation and disposal.